Economic Storm Warning
By now we're familiar with the script. MAGA extremists in Congress refuse to pass appropriation bills unless they're allowed to inject racist, misogynist, bigoted, and anti-democratic "poison pill" provisions that they could never enact through the normal legislative process. From October through January, lack of appropriations create a running series of government shutdown crises that are staved off by temporary Continuing Resolutions (CRs) into which the MAGA fanatics try to jam their cruel and vicious provisions.
Finally, the top leaders of both parties mash the 12 appropriation bills into one or two "omnibus" bills that they secretly draft in a closed backroom. Congress then has to pass those omnibus bills as-is (including whatever poison pills Republicans managed to get included)—or shut down some or all of the federal government. This process enormously empowers the already rich and powerful big-donor interests who have outsize influence with party leaders—and it disempowers voters like us. But, most of the time it does prevent a shutdown.
This year, Republicans are already threatening shutdowns to force further restrictions on women's human-rights to control their own bodies, to further enrich the fossil fuel industry by gutting environmental regulation and canceling measures to reduce global warming, to inflict further pain and suffering on those at the bottom of the economic pyramid by slashing SNAP and other safety net programs, to demonize and persecute nonwhite immigrants, to cripple Justice Department enforcement of civil and voting rights, and so much more.
President Biden and other Democratic Party leaders seem to be following the same CR-omnibus-bill strategy that they've used in recent years to resist as much of the MAGA authoritarian agenda as they think feasible. But this year there is a new element. To become Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy sold his soul to the MAGA extremists who now pull his strings. As one of the four top congressional leaders, he must agree to all the provisions in any omnibus bill or it cannot pass. In effect, this may give the small, MAGA-dominated "Freedom Caucus" minority a veto power over the entire federal budget.
Nevertheless, at the moment it looks likely that the CR-omnibus strategy may again be able to prevent a shutdown this year. But the chances of that approach failing are much greater now than in recent years, and it's possible that a long shutdown might occur.
Starting this Fall, we in Indivisible will be mobilizing to demand that our Representatives and Senators hold fast in defending democracy and resisting MAGA poison pills.
But, like Joseph warning of famine to come, we're alerting our members to the possibility of a shutdown so that those who might be negatively affected can prepare in advance. If the past is prologue, Social Security and Medicare benefits will not be affected by a shutdown and the Postal Service will continue to deliver mail. But many other services might be suspended:
Federal employees and contractors may not be paid for an unknown length of time.
SNAP, WIC, TANF and similar safety net benefits may be stopped, slowed, or hindered.
VA hospitals and clinics will probably remain open, but disability claim processing, support hotlines, rehabilitation, education, and counseling services may not.
The CDC may have to curtail flu/COVID-19 monitoring, immunization, and treatment services.
The State Department will pause issuing or renewing passports or other travel documents.
National parks, monuments, museums, recreational areas, and similar venues may close or become inaccessible.
EPA and FDA chemical, hazardous waste, food & water safety inspections may be curtailed.
Air travel may be slowed or hindered due to furloughs of controllers and inspectors.
Applications and processing for other services & programs may be halted.
If any of these possibilities put you at risk or threaten to derail future plans such as travel, we recommend that you consider making “just in case” preparations.